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It’s easy to point fingers during those times. Other times, we’re blindsided by an unforeseen catastrophe.
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Sometimes we bring it on ourselves with bad choices or careless mistakes. It's not what we were hoping for, but it wasn’t a bust either.Every marriage has seasons of disappointment, frustration, and grind. The fact of the matter is, the Phillies received more value than they gave up in this trade. You could even argue that if the Phillies had just kept Giles around he might not have gotten injured last year and maybe he would have saved the Phillies 2020 bullpen. You could argue that if the Phillies never acquired Velasquez they might have invested in some better starters over the past few years instead of hoping to turn Velasquez into a good pitcher. You could argue that the Phillies should have waited to find a better deal for Giles. There are still ways to argue that Matt Klentak lost the Velasquez/Giles trade. Velasquez has been a necessity for the Phillies over the past six seasons, whereas Giles would have been a luxury. Velasquez pitched 582.2 innings for the Phillies with a 4.93 ERA. It’s truly a matter of quality versus quantity. Giles is undoubtedly the more talented pitcher, but Velasquez was able to eat a ton of innings over the past six seasons. While Vince Velasquez made $9.2 million in his six seasons with the Phillies, the Astros and Blue Jays paid Ken Giles a total $15.5 million. Velasquez also came with a lower price tag. No matter which type of WAR you prefer, Vince Velasquez and Ken Giles have been roughly equivalent in value since 2016 (and, arguably, Vince has been more valuable). In that same time span, Vince Velasquez has been worth 7.0 fWAR (6.4 as a pitcher), 5.4 bWAR (4.4 as a pitcher), and 6.6 WARP (6.1 as a pitcher).
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Since 2016, Ken Giles has been worth 5.6 fWAR, 4.0 bWAR, and 6.4 WARP for the Astros and Blue Jays. Yet as far as the Phillies are concerned, Vince Velasquez may have provided them with more value than Giles ever would have.
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The Astros went on to have immense success and Ken Giles helped to make that happen. But that doesn't mean that the Phillies “lost” the trade either. There is no defensible way to argue that they did. So the Houston Astros did not “lose” the Velasquez/Giles trade. The Phillies have been unable to find a reliable closer since trading Giles, while the Astros have had no problem finding starting pitching since trading Velasquez. Their team ERA ranks 21st in the league, while Houston’s ranks 3rd. They have yet to make the playoffs or even finish above. Meanwhile, the Phillies have gone 398-453 (.468) since the trade. Ken Giles was one of the best relievers in baseball until he blew his arm out in 2020 and needed Tommy John surgery. Since 2016, the Astros have won three division titles and a World Series. While seven players switched teams in that trade, it feels apt to call it the Velasquez/Giles trade because the other five players have had little to no MLB success. Philadelphia also sent Jonathan Araúz to Houston as part of the deal. He traded a young, dominant reliever named Ken Giles to the Astros for a package of Mark Appel, Brett Oberholtzer, Tom Eshelman, Harold Arauz, and, of course, Vince Velasquez. In December 2015, Matt Klentak made his first major move as General Manager of the Philadelphia Phillies.